Budgeting, High Input System (South Waikato)

2023-24 mid-season update as of 16th February 2024.

View/download PDF of updated budget

Key points 

•    Milk production for the season is similar to last season but is 6% behind budget.
•    Lower BCS than target at calving has impacted early season production.
•    Additional winter grazing was purchased to reduce the winter stocking rate in an effort to increase pasture cover by calving.
•    Daily production is currently similar to last season.
•    Farm working expenses are forecast to be up $0.50/kgMS with half of this increase due to increased feed and winter grazing costs.

Comments

Production to date is 94,808 kg MS which is similar to the same time last season but is 6% behind budget. Peak cows milked is 290 which is on budget with losses for the season low at only 2. The herd peaked at 2.00 kgMS/cow/day for 11 days, in late September/early October.
With hindsight the herd was probably milked for about 5 days too long last season, which reduced supplements carried into the winter and impacted pasture cover at the end of May 2023. 
Winter grazing for 25 cows for 2 months was secured to help reduce feed demand on the farm over the winter, so that pasture cover could be increased more quickly.  With cover still behind target as calving approached, feeding levels for the cows were restricted. This meant that they were not on a rising plane of nutrition and cow body condition score was lower than target at the start of calving. 
This compromise has had some impact on milk production in the early part of the season and reproductive performance. 
The calving rate for the first 3 weeks was slower than last season so fewer days in milk has also contributed to some of the lower milksolids to date.
Supplements fed to date include 228t PKE, (205 tDM), and 240 tDM maize silage from inventory). This equates to 3445.4 t DM which is up on last season to the same time.
The amount of supplements made on farm this year was 12 ha of silage, (30 t DM). This is nearly double last season when only 16 t DM was harvest. There were better harvest windows for making supplement and though the peak growth was a little later there was a good surplus.
With the forecast for a dry summer the approach to dropping out paddocks was a bit conservative. Again with hindsight there probably could have been a bit more supplement made and this has also impacted pasture quality in late spring which affected milk production.  
In addition to this, 21 tDM of standing pasture for silage was imported. This was not included in the budget so harvesting costs are well up on budget. 
Rainfall for the last 2-3 weeks has been below average and recent day time temperatures have been very hot, (above 25degrees C). This is starting to impact the herd.
Fertiliser and nitrogen applications are as per budget with all spring fertiliser on and 3 application of N made for the season to date. Nitrogen applied to date is 85 kgN/ha. 
Forecast milk production has been revised down 6% to 126,995 kg MS. The revised budget has milk income 3% down on budget. The better than expected Fonterra dividend has helped to offset some of the drop in income due to the lower milksolids forecast.
Total farm working expenses for the season are on track to be about 3% higher than budgeted.  However with 6.0% less production FWE will be up about 10% or about $0.50c/kg MS. Half of this increase is due to additional feed or grazing purchased.

Current situation

There are currently still 290 cows on farm, (milking twice a day), which is 3.87cows per hectare. The herd is producing 1.32 kg MS/cow/day from 16 kg DM/cow/day. Feed is made up of 2.0 kg DM maize silage, 3.0 kg DM PKE and 11 kg DM from pasture. 
Average daily total production for February is similar to last season, but daily per cow production is 2.0% down on last season. 
Pasture cover is currently 2,150 kg DM/ha, and with estimated growth rates of 35-40 kg DM/ha/day, and daily pasture demand of 44kgdm/cow/day cover is dropping slightly. The rotation length is currently 30 days. 
The amount of supplements will be increased as pasture growth rates slow but levels will be monitored to ensure grazing residuals do not increase.
The hot dry weather is starting to have an impact on pasture growth rates.

Looking forward

This is still about 777 kg DM/cow or 7.3 kgDM/cow/day of supplements available to feed to the end of May.
This is made up of 51 tDM of grass silage, 85 tDM  PKE, (94 wet still on contract for the rest of the season), 35 tDM of maize from maize still on hand from last season plus at least 55 t DM maize from maize silage to be purchased in mid-March. This will still leave a minimum of 260 t DM of maize to carry through to the next season.
Although the budget includes the purchase of 315 tDM of Maize silage, it is likely that more will be available as the crop yields are looking good and a bit more area was planted by the grower, which is available for purchase.  If the summer and autumn continues to be hot and dry, additional maize silage will ensure that there will be enough to use this season and still take sufficient though to next spring. The cost was in the budget at $458/ tDM but it is now more likely to be about $360/tDM.
One more application of PhaSed N at 30 kg N/ha will be applied in the autumn so N use for the year will be on budget at about 115 kg N /ha.
With the level of supplement on hand, the plan is still to milk the majority of the 290 cows through to mid-May. 
The rising 3 year olds will go to once a day milking late March/early April, and the herd will be dried off in late May as per usual practice.
The lower cow condition at calving and the extra feed required over the winter to achieve pasture cover targets at calving has led to a revision of late season management. Production at the end of the season is very expensive in terms of feed used. Therefore drying off this year will likely be mid-May rather than late May.
Frequent monitoring and updating of pasture growth rates and feed on hand will be carried out to ensure feed budgets are on track so that end of season targets for pasture cover and cow body condition score will not be compromised this year.

Calving and reproduction

•    The calving rate for 2023-24 was 62% of the herd calved in 3 weeks, 87% in 6 weeks and 99% in 9 weeks. This is behind last season which was 67%, 80% and 100% respectively.
•    The 3 week submission rate for 2023-24 is 75% which much lower than last season, (80%). 
•    The six week in calf rate is73%, this is up on last season (68% E).
•    The not in calf rate is 12%.
•    67 replacement calves were reared which is as per budget.

Other points of interest

•    The cost of supplements purchased is up. More PKE has been purchased compared with budget, (about 14 t), and the average price will be about $345/t which is about $15/t more than budget. The PKE contracted for the rest of the season is at $305/t landed but the average for PKE purchased so far is $359/t.
•    Fencing costs are up this year as one third of the farms’ fencing is being replaced due to its age. In addition, about 1 ha of steep land will be fenced off for riparian planting.
•    Calf rearing costs are up as this year the decision was made to rear calves on 50-50 mix of whole milk and milk powder.  The cost to the owner was neutral, but it meant the contract milker was better off as more milk was sent to the factory.
•    Payments to the contract milker are down 6% with the reduction in forecast milksolids.

Strategic plan
Have a very profitable business based on a high input system that is implemented to a high standard.
Minimise waste, (in any form), from the system through application of good management of the system e.g. cows, (empty & losses), feed, minerals, pasture, effluent.
Have a system that consistently delivers excellent physical and financial KPI’s irrespective of season and pay out.

Financial
Deliver very good cost control, specifically around the use of basic, lower cost, feed inputs.  Manage the budget to identify the minimum requirements to generating high production.
Analyse and benchmark the system to identify opportunities for improvement i.e. high profit will come from executing the current system well rather than chasing the ultimate system.
Continue to use surplus cash to strengthen the financial position of the business.

• The farm system is set up to optimise the amount of feed grown and harvested based on best practice pasture management, running the correct stocking rate and calving date, and economic use of imported feed to maximise days-in-milk.
• Success relies on frequent monitoring of feed budgets, pasture growth rates, cow condition and feed prices to ensure optimal use of pasture grown and efficient and profitable use of imported feed.
• The 24 aside herringbone dairy shed and effluent system are 8 years old. The shed is 0.7 km from the furthest paddock.
• The farm is rolling hill country typical of the Putaruru area, with 50% of the milking area having about a 20 m difference in height from the dairy shed.
• Facilities include a feed pad and feed storage, (for silage stacks), near the dairy shed. This minimises time and costs related to feeding out and also minimises wastage associated with storage and feeding of silage.
• Races, fencing and water supply are all in good order and regularly maintained. The policy is to undertake repairs and maintenance when milk prices are favourable. To do so ensures infrastructure and resources remain in good order.

• Pasture
  Pasture and crop eaten has increased to 14.9 t DM/ha in the past 7 years.
  The policy is to fully utilise pasture first.
  The aim is to utilise all nutrients from effluent to significantly reduce purchased fertiliser.
• Feed policy
  Avoid using high cost inputs and focus on low cost, high energy supplements and use the farm as a protein source rather than buying in expensive supplements.
  In addition, minimising wastage of purchased feed is very important so a high level of attention is placed around stack and storage management, feeding out and getting the daily input levels correct.
• Supplements purchased
  About 590-610 t DM of imported supplement are used. This equates to 2000-2100 kg DM per cow. Maize silage makes up just over 50% of the imported feed and PKE makes up just under 50%. This balance could change depending on relative prices and final yields for the maize, (the purchase is based on hectares so if yields are down then imported maize silage will be down).
• Supplements made on the milking platform
  Surplus pasture is made in to silage.  The amount can vary each year but is usually around 40-50 t DM per year.
• Young stock
  Calves leave the farm December 1st as weaners and return to the farm May 1st as in-calf heifers. The grazing costs include freight and all animal health costs including zinc. PKE fed will be fed at no extra charge if required.

• The farm implemented a cross breeding policy six years ago which now means the herd is 70% cross-bred and 30% Friesian. The breed change was part of a programme to target rising not in calf rates which got as high as 19%. After six years the not in calf rate is down to 11%. The target now is on achieving a less than 10% empty rate from a 12 week mating.
• The heifers are mated to start calving a week earlier than mature cows. AB is for 5.5 weeks. Herd test 4 times per year one milking only. Six bulls are purchased or leased each year to use with the herd after AB is finished. Mating goes for 12 weeks.
• First calvers and thinner younger cows are milked once a day from late February/early March to protect body condition.

• The farm is managed with a contract milker, plus relief milker equating to 1.6 FTE. The contract milker’s remuneration covers their share of shed, power, farm bike and communication costs as well as a calf rearing allowance.
• The farm owners unpaid input is for 0.1 FTE for the year. Owner input includes about two part days a month on farm as well as time spent on governance and administration for the business. 

• Soils and fertility
  The farm soil type is a well-drained volcanic (allophanic) soil. The Olsen P levels are 30 on non-effluent areas, (35% of the farm), and 50 on the effluent area. The pH is 6.0.
• Fertiliser and nitrogen
  The effluent area gets 90 kg N per ha over the whole year and the non-effluent area gets 120 kg N per ha. Fertiliser applied is urea, PhasedN and sulphur depending on the time of year and the soil conditions.
  Fertiliser applications are based on soil test results and are consistent with maintaining soil fertility at economic optimum while minimising losses.
  August and September fertiliser and nitrogen for the whole farm is now applied by helicopter, as is the autumn fertiliser for the non effluent area.
  Contour and soil conditions in the late winter and early spring mean that a much better coverage can be achieved with the helicopter. The contour of the non effluent area is difficult to evenly spread fertiliser using land based spreaders so using a helicopter on this land gives more efficient use of fertiliser.
• Effluent
  65% of the farm is spray irrigated with effluent.

*These KPI's are based on cash book actuals to 31 May 2022 and estimated non-cash adjustments. The final financial performance based on financial statements may differ.

Click here for PDF of 2021-22 budget v actuals

Comments

• Production was up 1.8% on budget by early January but finished and 1.6% down for the whole season. The hot and dry late summer and autumn weather impacted pasture growth rates. It was difficult to maintain pasture cover and cow condition. The season ended about one week earlier than usual with the last milk sent, (from 175 cows), on May 19th.
• Pasture and crop eaten for the 2021-22 season is estimated to be about 13.3 t DM/ha which is 8-9% down on last season. Supplements fed for the season of 693.2 t DM are 10% up on budget.
• The milk price was $1.79/kg MS higher than budget, which more than made up for the lower than budgeted milksolids. Farm working expenses were $0.50/kg MS up on budget, half of this increase was due to the purchase additional supplements and winter cow grazing. Fertiliser price rises accounted for another 0.07/kg MS.
• The estimated operating profit for the season is $7687/ha which is 55% higher than the budget estimate and is largely due to the increase in milk price received. Limiting the increase in operating expenses to below $0.50/kg MS, or 10%, is a good achievement, given the season and the high level of inflation.

Other points of interest

• Silage made on farm was 13 t DM which is well below the budget of 40 t DM. An additional 58 t DM of silage was purchased at $420 per t landed that was not in the budget. This helped make up the shortfall in home grown silage.
• The amount spent on maize and PKE was similar to budget but the balance changed, with 79 t less of PKE, (wet), and 75 t DM more of maize being purchased. The rising price of PKE was one reason for not contracting to buy more than the original 288 t, and to make the switch to purchasing more maize.
• The younger cows were put on to once a day milking in early March, which was one week later than the previous season. 100 early calving, younger and lower BCS cows were dried off on May 7th.
• Pasture cover at drying off was 300 kg DM/ha below the 2,400kg DM/ha target. Cow condition was also lighter than usual for that time of year. Additional supplement feeding through June along with sending some of the herd off farm to winter grazing has helped to improve both pasture cover and cow BCS at planned start of calving in early July. Pasture cover was 2250 kg DM/ha and BCS was 4.8 for the herd and 5.5 for the in calf heifers.
• The not in calf rate is 14% which is higher than last season, (11%). The 6 week in calf rate is 69%. Again down on the 20-21 season figure of 73%.
• N applied for the season was 113 kg N/ha which is on budget.

*These KPI's are based on cash book actuals to 31 May 2020 and estimated non-cash adjustments. The final financial performance based on financial statements may differ.

Click here for PDF of 2019-20 budget v actuals

Comments

• Our farm system relies on frequent monitoring of feed budgets, pasture growth rates, cow condition and feed prices to ensure optimal use of pasture grown and efficient use of imported feed. This attention to detail means that there is usually very little variation between budgets and actual performance each year. The 2019-20 season was no different.
• The 2019-20 season progressed pretty much as planned. Production was up 1% on budget and profit per - estimated to be $4,050 per ha, is 2% up on budget.
• Milk price received in the financial year was $6.95 ($0.32 up on forecast) and largely contributed to the net dairy cash income being $53,000 up on budget. Farm working expenses finished at $4.13 per kg MS which was $31,507 up on budget. Most costs were close to budget, with the main variances coming from the purchased feed, fertiliser, R & M and vehicles categories.

Other points of interest

• The good late winter and spring meant that 60 t DM of maize silage was carried over from the start of the season and 20t DM more grass silage was made on farm so supplements going into the summer was up 281 kg DM per cow.
• The summer and autumn were drier than usual but not to a great extent. The extra feed taken into the summer went a long way to offsetting the reduced pasture growth rates caused by the dry weather.
• The dry weather did impact the yield of the 14 ha of Maize purchased. As a result maize costs were down 12% but PKE costs were up 8%. The extra PKE had was contracted earlier in the season so rising spot prices did not impact the price per t.
• Cow wastage was low this season (only 1 death in the spring), so the number of culls for sale was up on budget.
• As a result of the lower wastage early in the season peak cows milked were up on budget so animal health costs were up by a corresponding amount.
• The not in calf rate for 2019-20 was 11.1%, (based on pregnancy test results). The 2018-19 rate was 13% so the improvement is pleasing.
• Replacement heifer calves reared were 13 less than budget which meant that weaner grazing costs were below budget.
• N applied was on budget with 90 kg N per ha applied to the effluent areas and 120 kg N per ha applied to the non-effluent areas.
• R & M costs were up 40% as the budget had not factored in work done on farm houses to upgrade the insulation.
• Vehicle costs were up 70% as a result of 2 larger tractor repairs that were not planned.

Feed situation

• % still milking: 89% (last 15 culls going 12 May).
• Dry off date: Main herd about 20/05/20, 10-15 cows needing long acting DCT 11-12 May.
• % Milking area regrassed: 8.6% of farm (6.5ha undersowed).
• N applied this autumn to date: 32kg N/ha as phased over the whole farm applied last week in April, just before the last good rainfall.
• Planned N application to end of month: 0

Actions taken to address the feed shortage

• The good late winter and spring meant that 60t DM of maize silage was carried over from the start of the season and 20t DM more grass silage was made on farm so supplements going into the summer was up 281kg DM per cow.
• The summer and autumn have been drier than usual but not to a great extent.
• The biggest impact of the dry conditions has been on the yield of the 14ha maize purchased.
• The season has progressed very much as planned – Maize silage purchased was down 12% (50t DM) and PKE imported up 8%. The PKE had been contracted earlier in the season so the extra purchased was not affected by rising spot prices.
• The young cows went to once a day in early April as per normal.
• Culls went in April in two lots. There was minimal delay in getting stock away when planned.
• N was applied to the whole farm as soon as moisture and soil conditions were favourable.

Plans to achieve target APC and BCS and PSC targets

• Our farm system relies on frequent monitoring of feed budgets, pasture growth rates, cow condition and feed prices to ensure optimal use of pasture grown and efficient use of imported feed. This means this season we are tracking as any other year.
• The key is to be on the right round length now and build up cover while we can. Current rotation length is 60 days, daily pasture requirements are 30kg DM per ha per day (and will decline with culling and drying off), so growth rates of 40-50 pasture cover should see an increase 200-400kg DM per ha by the end of May as cow demand for pasture declines with drying off.
• It is critical to act early as a delay will cost more feed to achieve the same results but with higher costs.

Concerns and plans for the upcoming weeks

• No main issues. By 15 May the milking herd will be down to 230 and the SR will be at 3.96 so demand on the farm will be less.
• BCS is a little lighter than usual but there are sufficient supplements on hand to address that prior to calving.
• Supplements on hand at the end of May is similar to this time last year.

^{*These KPI's are based on cash book actuals to 31 May 2019 and estimated non-cash adjustments. The final financial performance based on financial statements may differ.}

^{Click here for PDF of 2018-19 budget v actuals}

Comments

• This was definitely as season of 2 halves. The early part of the season went well and by December the cash flow was on track as per the budget. Production was on budget with 13% less supplements fed.
• The prolonged dry period from mid-January to late April had a big impact on the light volcanic soils and production finished 5,965 kg MS, (4.7%), behind budget, and feed costs were up.
• The estimated operating profit for the 2018-19 season is $3,531 which is 13.7% below budget.
• Milk revenue was down due to the lower milksolids but this was offset slightly by a higher than budgeted milk price received - $6.52 per kg MS actual was $0.09 higher than budget.
• Livestock revenue was lower than budgeted due to fewer cows being sold and a lower-than-budgeted price received. Closing MA cow numbers were up on budget as the plan is to milk 15 more cows in 2019-20 so the lower cash income is offset by a higher than budgeted value of change of livestock numbers on hand at the end of the season.
• Total farm working expenses were $28,160 up on budget, (5.6%), but when the lower milk production is taken into account costs per kg MS, (FWE), were $4.36, (up 10.8%).
• Most of the variation in costs from the budget were due to additional feed purchased to fill a feed deficit due to the drought and to increase the feed on hand for next spring and the planned increase in cow numbers to be milked.
• Operating costs for the year were 7.2% up on budget after taking into account the additional maize on hand for next spring.

Other points of interest

• Mating went well, with improved heat detection and timing of mating through using heat detection patches.  This has given more certainty to heat detection and better timing of insemination. The result was more cows mated to AB than budgeted.
• Reproductive performance of the herd for 18-19 was still disappointing. There was a slight improvement in submission rate but a higher than expected return rate meant that the 6 week in-calf rate was only 58%. The non-return rate for the year is 13% which is marginally better than the previous year.
• Supplements fed for the year were 237 t DM PKE and 378 t DM Maize. This equates to 2.28 t DM per cow which is 8% up on budget and 17.5% higher than the 17-18 season. An additional 50 t DM of Maize was carried forward for spring 2019.
• Nitrogen applied was 138 kg N per ha average over the whole farm. This compares with 132 kg N per ha for 2017-18.
• The last of the herd was dried off on 18th May which is a few days earlier than usual.
• As at the end of June the average pasture cover is now 2,650 kg DM per ha and the herd is all in calving condition (BCS of 5.0 for mature cows and 5.5 for R 2 heifers).