Budgeting, Lower Northland (Don and Kirsten Watson)

• Vision
  Rapid equity growth in agribusiness, to achieve financial independence, and personal fulfilment.
  Undertake farm development through continued improvement of farm infrastructure and pasture grown. Operate a farm system that drives efficient feed utilisation to ensure a profitable farm business.
• Values
  Value dedicated work ethic, professional integrity, and high standards.
• Budgeting
  Regularly review budgets and finances to ensure cash flow is managed efficiently and financial decisions can be made proactively.
• Planning
  Have a business and farm plan for the short and long term which outlines goals, measures and actions. Review and update this plan at least annually. This covers targets for financial goals, use of resources, improving capability, high quality livestock performance and personal goals. 
• Debt
  Have a plan for staged debt reduction. This has been delayed due to higher than expected required capital expenditure for effluent irrigation installation and farm development.
• Risk
  Implement strategies to limit exposure to risk from the factors that are outside of the business’s control such as interest rates, milk price and weather. E.g. actively managing fixing interest rates, utilise fixed milk price options if required, forward plan feed requirements so prices can be fixed at favourable rates
• Networking
  Take the opportunity to network with top farmers and industry experts to learn more.
• Environment 
  Develop and monitor the farm system so that all environmental KPI’s continue to improve and industry best practice is achieved.

• The farm operates a production system 4, with imported feed a mix of maize silage, kibbled maize, baleage and silage provided from the adjacent support block and  PKE30 molasses imported from feed merchants.
• The area is subject to significant climatic variations and it is typically summer dry and winter wet. Having good buffers of feed on hand is an important part of the annual farm plan.
• Focus is on feeding the herd well and using high metabolisable energy, (ME), feeds to get better use of the current lower ME, Kikuyu dominant pasture. This should also contribute to achieving close to an average of 300 day lactation's for the herd.
• Feed budgeting is used ensure livestock are fed well while optimising pasture utilisation, maintaining pasture quality, (particularly in Kikuyu dominant pastures), and ensuring efficient use of supplements.
• Have a continual pasture renewal policy to improve pasture species and reduce the reliance on imported feed. The farm has already dropped from a production system 5, (< 30 % imported feed), to a system 4, (21-30% imported feed) in the past 7 years due to improved pasture species and better management of Kikuyu.
• The farm is consented for 320 cows but aims to peak milk 300 through a 32 bail rotary shed. The cows are run as one herd, which simplifies management and reduces pasture damage in wet conditions.
• A feed pad adjoins the dairy shed. This can hold 300 cows but it is a tight squeeze.  It is more comfortable with about 270-280.
• Supplements are fed all year on the feed pad, usually prior to the morning milking. Supplementary feeding levels can be as high as 12kgDM/cow/day in April and May and as low as 0.5-1.0 kgDM/cow/day in the late spring.
• The herd is split calving with 130-135 cows calving in the autumn and 170-175 calving in the spring.
• The farm has good infrastructure with 48 paddocks, races in good order and good water supply to all paddocks. There are 2 water troughs in each paddock as the paddocks tend to be long and narrow. All drains are fenced.
• Significant work has been done in the last 7 years to improve the drainage on the marine clay flats. The benefit of this was seen in the aftermath of cyclone Gabriel. The water drained away quickly and the paddocks stood up well to the wet weather.
• It is 1.5 km from the farm dairy shed to the furthest paddock and the farm is of a flat to easy contour.
• The support block backs on to forestry and is impacted by incursions of wild deer. About 30 ha of the area is deer fenced and further work is under way to exclude deer from the better pasture.
• All cows and in-calf heifers are wintered off the milking area on the support block across the road. Young stock are grazed off farm from weaning, although they can sometimes be moved to the support block prior to weaning if pasture cover is low on the milking area.
• The majority of non-replacement calves born are reared for sale as dairy beef or herd bulls.The aim is to have 100% of calves born to be reared on farm or sold for rearing.
• Empty cows are fattened on the support block and sold in late spring when cull prices are higher.
• Drying off decisions are made based on cow condition, feed budgets and calving dates, to ensure pre-calving target CS of 5.0 for MA cows and 5.5 for 2 year old heifers are met.

• Pasture
  To manage the kikuyu dominant pasture, the kikuyu, (about 90 ha), is mulched in the autumn and undersown with a tetraploid hybrid ryegrass.
  The spring rotation planner is used but is adapted to take into account the very wet soils.
  Pasture monitoring and feed budgeting is carried out about every 10 days through August and September, and then weekly from October through to December.
  Once the kikuyu growing season commences the feed management is based on days since last grazed rather than pasture cover as it is very hard to get an accurate measurement of dry matter cover with kikuyu.
  Higher grazing residuals of 1650-1720 kgDM/ha are tolerated for the milking herd through the winter and early spring to avoid pasture damage on the marine clay soils.
  Annuals and the tetraploid hybrid ryegrasses are grazed like normal ryegrass pastures, at the 2 1/2 leaf stage, so plant growth stage largely determines the rotation length.
  New pasture is grazed to 1500-1600 kg DM/ha, (soil conditions permitting).
  Topping is carried out in late spring and early summer if required, to maintain pasture quality. Dry stock can be brought home from the support block to help maintain pasture quality as well.
  The new permanent pastures, (a fescue, red clover and chicory mix), perform well over the summer on a 40-50 day rotation.
  Ten percent of the Kikuyu dominant pastures, (3 paddocks), are mulched each week from January. This practice has resulted in an increase of over 15% in pasture grown in the last 6 years.
  The newer pastures are out performing the Kikuyu ones by over 30%.
• Feed policy
  Supplements are fed once a day on the fed pad to milking cows all year round.  Afternoon supplementation may also be given if weather conditions are particularly bad.
  Supplements fed to milking cows are maize silage, good quality silage and baleage and PKE30 molasses blend. Baleage is fed to dry stock, plus PKE may be used for the young stock over the summer if necessary.
  The predominant Kikuyu pasture base affects the metabolisable energy, (ME), of pasture, particularly over mating in late spring and in the autumn. Experience has shown that cows will lose weight at these time on pasture only so supplementation is carried out all year round to ensure that the intake of ME is adequate.
• Cropping
  The ongoing pasture renewal programme to replace Kikuyu with a fescue, Chicory and white and red Clover mix has about 8-9% of the farm being cropped each year. The ideal process is still a work in progress and the weather and soil conditions each spring have an impact on exactly what is done.
  The cropping programme involves spraying out the Kikuyu in the spring and planting with a chicory and clover mix for summer feed. This is then under sown with annual Ryegrass in the autumn and re-sown with turnips the following spring for the summer, before being planted in permanent pasture. This rotation seems to result in good permanent pasture that persists.  
  Each year about 16-18% of the milking area, (up to about 20 ha), is sown in summer crops.
• Supplements made
  Supplements are only made on the milking platform if there is surplus pasture. The area harvested depends on just how much cropping is able to be done, and usually about 8 t DM of baleage and 40 t DM of pit silage is made on the milking area.
  On the support block about 8 t DM of higher ME baleage is made for the young stock, plus about 30 t DM of haylage is made for use over the winter.
• Maize grown
  Maize is grown on the support block each year. For 2023-24 the plan is to plant 16 ha for maize silage using a mix of early and later maturing varieties so harvesting can start late summer. Total yield should be about 350 t DM. This season another 5 ha of grain maize will be grown to produce about 60 t DM of kibbled maize for the farm.  This higher ME feed can be used to help keep weight on the cows in the autumn when the Kikuyu is most dominant.

• There has been a focus on driving genetic gain for the last 6 years as the herd brought on to the farm was made up of the lower BW cows from the larger sharemilking herd plus the top 100 in calf heifers out of the line of 240.
• For 2023-24 season the first calving heifers averaged over 500 kg MS/cow - well above the herd average of 437 kf MS/cow.
• Currently the herd BW is 241/48 and PW is 279/69, with 99% recorded ancestry. This puts the herd in the top 5% for genetic merit in NZ.
• Herd testing is carried out 3 times a year one milking per test. This information is used to assist mating and culling decisions.
• Mating is 9 weeks for the autumn herd and 10-11 weeks for the spring herd.
  AB is used for 3 weeks for both herds. The highest genetic merit cows and all the yearlings are mated to AB. For the 2023 season sexed semen will be used again to reduce the number of cows needed to generate enough replacements.
• The lower genetic merit cows are naturally mated with Angus composite cross bulls, (Angus/Simmental/Gelbvie).
• After AB is finished 2 teams of 2 bulls are run with the herd and 2 bulls are run with the heifers.
• The Angus composite cross is used as it is easier calving than many beef breeds, but still provides calves that have good growth rates.
• The bulls are purchased as yearlings and sold as 3 year olds.
• The replacement rate is 26-30%, with 45-55 spring and 35-40 autumn replacements reared.
• An additional 170-190 calves are reared for sale as dairy beef or herd bulls.
• Any calves not reared are sold as 4-10 day old calves for rearing.
• The animal health focus is on good observation, prevention and early treatment if required.
  Cu and Se are administered through the water during calving and mating using a dosatron system. Liver and blood sample analysis shows that this is sufficient to maintain acceptable levels.
• Best practice is followed to ensure good udder health and good quality milk is produced. The goal is to maintain a SCC of under 100000.
• Young stock are weighed regularly to check that industry recommended weights are being achieved. If for any reason heifers are under the recommended weights at mating they will be carried over and mated the following season e.g. spring born heifers carried over and mated with the autumn born heifers.
• In-calf heifers are run with the milking herd for 1 month prior to calving which makes it very easy for them to integrate into the herd post calving.

• One full time permanent staff member is employed. Plus some contract labour is used for additional R & M and relief milking.
• The farm meets industry best practice for health, safety and employment protocols. Registers and documents for OSH and onsite inductions are maintained and regularly updated.
• Being split calving and milking all year round can mean it is a struggle at times to take time away from the farm.
  Once the autumn herd is dried off at the beginning of January, the spring herd is milked once a day. This allows for afternoons off as well as a 7-10 day summer holiday.
  The farm is on the Kaipara harbour and also has easy access through forestry to the west coast beach on the peninsular so there are plenty of fun activities such as fishing, swimming and bike riding nearby.

• Farm environment plan
  The FEP was completed in 2016/17 as part of the winter milk application. While now out of date it is still useful for helping to prioritise planning to ensure continued progress is made towards achieving the best environmental outcomes for the farm and business.
• Effluent
  A 3 pond discharge effluent system is consented through to 2025. A concrete pond, 25m by 5m off the end of the feed pad acts as a solids trap. Ponds and solids trap are cleaned twice a year and slurry tankers are used to spread the effluent on pasture or crop areas.
  Infrastructure for irrigation of effluent to 28 ha has just been installed and is now fully operational.
  The short to medium term plan includes replacing the discharge effluent system with a new storage pond and installing rainwater diversions on the yards and feed pad.
• Riparian planting
  The farm has about 8 ha of QEII bush, hill and sidling and some swamp. A riparian planting plan has been developed as part of the Integrated Kaipara Management group and it is hoped that planting based on this plan can commence soon.
  Plans are also in place to increase the number of shade trees on the farm.
• Environmental KPI’s
  Purchased N surplus for 2023-24 was 123 kgN/ha/year and GHG was 13.5 t CO2 equiv/ha/year for the milking area.
• Nitrogen
  N use for the 2023-24 season was about 138kgN/ha on the milking area. This was higher than usual because of the very wet summer and autumn the prior season.
  Nitrogen is applied at about 12 kg N/ha per application over 5-6 applications from early May through to late October/November on in the form of liquid N.
  
• Soil Management
  There is a strong focus on careful grazing in wet weather and not causing pasture damage. This also has a positive outcome on reducing soil damage and reducing sediment loss into the Kaipara Harbour which is a major issue affecting water quality in the catchment.
  Using resilient pastures would reduce the frequency of cultivation. However, this is an area the industry needs to address.
• Soils and testing
  The farm soil type is 15% sandy loam and 85% marine clay. The flats are stop banked and protected by 3 floodgates.
  The soil test results on the sandy loam are Olsen P of 32, pH of 5.9 and potassium of 6. Olsen P is 50, pH is 6.3 and potassium is 14-18 on the marine clay and does not vary much. Requirements for nutrients on this area are low so only nitrogen and lime are applied. Maintenance levels of phosphate and potassium, (45 kg P/ha and 45 kg K/ha) are applied to the sandy loam in 3 applications.
  Fertiliser applied does depend on what is cheapest at the time. Last autumn potassium was applied with DAP as that was the cheapest option. In the spring and early summer a 15% potassium sustaiN mix has been used.
  The sandy loam soils now get effluent irrigated on them so the lower K should improve and less imported potassium will need to be applied.

Overview
August 15th, 2023

We are just over two weeks in to calving with the spring herd and finishing mating with the autumn herd, so things are very busy on farm at present. We haven’t had time to look at our budget in great detail. That said, we have updated the Fonterra milk price and have lost over $100,000 income out of the budget. Our focus is to:

Concentrate on what we can control, such as feed allocation, to ensure spring production is optimised
Reduce spending on lime and R & M, which we are able to do because there has been a high level of expenditure in these areas in the past couple of years
Discuss any on-farm management changes properly with staff and explain why we are having to make changes.

What advice would you give to farmers who are either first time sharemilking or farm owners?

Communicate with your banker and maintain a good relationship.

Limit all unnecessary expenses.

Do your best to ride it out, things will improve.

What words of positivity would you give to farmers planning for the coming months ahead?

"Stick to your knitting", and focus on getting the basics right.

If you have a good equity level and haven’t yet invested, now is a good time to look at your future options, as there could be some good opportunities out there.

Do you have any tips and tricks for looking after your people on farm?

Maintain a positive workplace despite the bleaker outlook. It doesn’t really affect staff financially, so don’t make your problems theirs.

October 27th, 2023

How has the season been so far?

• Production is down 5% on last season and significantly more on budget. The 2023-24 budget had been for a 7.5% increase on last season so overall we are about 12.5% behind budget.
• The ground has stayed saturated over the past 2-3 months and there has been a lot of cloud cover so pasture growth has been well below average.
• With the very wet autumn and winter, the stocking rate on the milking area has been reduced. The autumn calving herd numbers are currently 8% lower than last year and budget having been culled down in mid-July.
• The cow numbers for the spring calving herd are still on budget but 14 cows with high somatic cell counts or that have been identified as definite culls have been kept separate and milked for calves. These cows will be culled as soon as the calves are weaned, so herd numbers will be lower much earlier in the season.
• Winter and spring pasture management has been different this year compared with the last 5 years due to the very wet soil conditions.
  Cows have been stood off more this winter that in the last 5 years combined.
• Supplementary feeding through this period has been almost to excess to keep pasture residuals high and avoid pugging.  
• With higher residuals going in to the spring, the “balance date” was 15th of September. This is earlier than usual, given the lower growth rates, as pasture cover stayed above 200 kg DM/ha.
• The daily amount of supplements being fed has been reduced a lot since then with the cows now just getting 1.5 kg DM/cow/day of a maize/PKE mix.
• Nitrogen use has been earlier than usual as pastures were showing signs of nitrogen deficit due to the increased leaching from the high rainfall. To date about 90 kg N/ha have been used so the total for the season is likely to up about 30 kg N/ha. On the lighter soils and the hills sulphur and nitrogen have been applied.
• To date on the milking platform, 21 t DM of baleage (70 bales at 300 kg DM) have been made, with another 7-8 t DM (25 bales) to be made soon. On the support block there have already been 190 bales of baleage harvested. This adds up to about 80 t DM harvested, the budget was for about 73 t DM of baleage and silage so supplements going into the summer are 10% up on budget.
• On the milking platform there are 16.5 ha going into summer crops. Planting will be staggered and the crop will be a mix of Barkant turnips and Goliath rape on the drier soils. There are already 2 paddocks up plus 1 paddock of New York turnips, (a later maturing variety), the latter, to provide high energy feed for the autumn calvers. The balance of the summer crops will be 10 of chicory and clover mix or chicory, clover and sorghum.  The latter will be planted in paddocks nearest the harbour where ducks and geese can be a problem – the sorghum, being tall, inhibits grazing by waterfowl.
• On both the sandy loam and the marine clay soils the crop establishment has been to spray, drill, ground hog and harrow to aerate the soil, then roll or mulch if there is too much trash present. The aim is to avoid power harrowing and promote good soil structure in the marine clay in particular
• On the support block 12 ha of maize has already been planted and the maize is up. A further 9 ha will be planted but the soils are still a bit wet.
• The very wet summer and autumn caused flooding on the support block which has meant the 40 ha have effectively been out of rotation for about 8 months.
• More dry stock were sold in the autumn than normal so that the winter stocking rate was lower than usual. 
• The 40 ha has now been planted with a mix of red and white clover, sorghum and chicory. This area will be used for the calves over the summer. 

What are cash flow forecasts looking like? How will a drought impact this?

• The cash flow is not wonderful however the Fonterra dividend and capital dividend plus the winter milk income and the sale of some Fonterra shares has made a big difference.
• We operate an all in one loan account and because debt repayment has been a focus in the past, cash flow will not be a problem.  
• The main difference is that there may not be much, if any, debt reduction this financial year.
• We have been able to defer cropping costs for 6 months which has helped cash flow in the short term.
• If there is a severe summer drought production and milk income will be reduced further and feed costs and possible regrassing costs could go up. 

Has the NIWA El Nino forecast changed how you are approaching this summer?

• With the NIWA forecast for a drier summer, we are trialing cropping a paddock, (5 ha),  with forage peas in one of the paddocks sown in annuals. Under good conditions it can yield up to 13 t DM and will be planted mid-November and harvested, (bales or ensiled), in January. The area would then be planted in oats in the autumn. This would also be used for the autumn calving herd.
• We have had a lot of rain already since January. With El Nino we could get a normal dry summer, but are also expecting the possibility of a dry autumn, so are planning for a larger than normal feed deficit from March-May
• If need be we can allocate the winter planned conserved forage to milkers in autumn and substitute with PKE for the spring calving herd in winter.

What strategies do you have this season for when a drought comes early, late, or is prolonged?

De-stocking early because of the wet autumn and winter means that we will be going into the summer with a lower stocking rate so should be able to take a higher pasture cover into the summer. 

Comes early

• Crops have gone in early so will be able to be harvested earlier, which should help delay the effects of an early drought.
• There is the potential to cull a few more autumn calving cows, and cull some spring calvers earlier than usual once empties are identified.

Comes late

• A later drought affects the autumn calving herd more and it is important to ensure there is enough feed on hand that will provide sufficient protein for them after calving. The forage pea crop is part of this plan.

Is prolonged

• The budget already includes a contingency for extra PKE in the event of a dry summer so this will be used in the event of a prolonged drought.
• Other than that, management will focus on de-stocking as necessary through culling or drying of cows, and ensuring careful allocation of existing feed resources to priority stock.
• It is essential that next season is not compromised so the autumn calving herd and young stock will be a priority.
• Pasture management will be focused on ensuring over grazing is avoided as much as possible on all the good new pasture.
• Adequate supplementation with higher ME feed when grazing the poorer quality Kikuyu through the summer dry will also be critical.
• Timely regrassing when the drought breaks should help ensure pasture going into the next season is back to full production quickly.